Is the return to Eden Possible? How?
In a remarkable display of unity and resolve, the student-led political movements of Bangladesh have achieved what seemed unthinkable: the ousting of a solid autocratic government that had maintained a firm grip on power for 15 years. This government, led by Sheikh Hasina, was not just a domestic powerhouse but also enjoyed significant backing from neighbouring countries’ political administrations and powerful establishments, particularly India. Yet, despite this formidable support, the students, driven by a desire for justice, transparency, and the restoration of democratic principles, managed to dismantle a regime that had appeared unassailable.
Historical Precedents of Dictatorial Returns
Throughout history, several autocrats have managed to claw their way back to power after being ousted. One notable example is the return of Juan Perón to Argentina. After being deposed in 1955, Perón spent years in exile, only to return to power in 1973. His comeback was made possible by strategically aligning with key military leaders, influencing media narratives, and building a powerful political base.
Similarly, the return of Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua exemplifies how a fallen leader can leverage alliances and financial resources to stage a comeback. After losing power in 1990, Ortega returned to the presidency in 2007, this time with the backing of key military and business leaders, alongside control of media outlets that shaped public opinion in his favor.
The Blueprint for a Dictatorial Comeback
In cases where fallen dictators have returned to power, there is often a common blueprint:
- Financial Power: The accumulation and strategic deployment of financial resources is crucial. With billions of dollars at their disposal, these leaders can bribe key military personnel, reinstate connections with influential judges, and win over bureaucratic administrations. Money becomes a tool to corrupt and co-opt those who hold the reins of power.
- Military Influence: A dictator’s return is almost impossible without the support of the military. By bribing top army officials and ensuring their loyalty, the fallen leader can secure the military’s backing, which is essential for maintaining or regaining control.
- Media Control: Controlling the narrative is critical. Media houses, once aligned with the dictator, begin to slowly but steadily shift public opinion. By infiltrating media networks and using their influence, these leaders can manipulate public perception, creating an environment where their return seems not only possible but desirable.
- Judiciary and Bureaucracy: Re-establishing connections with the judiciary and bureaucratic administration is another vital step. By ensuring that key legal and administrative figures are in their pocket, these leaders can dismantle any legal barriers to their return and suppress opposition.
- International Alliances: The support of powerful international players is often crucial. For instance, Ortega’s return to power in Nicaragua was supported by alliances with regional powers that helped him regain control. In the case of Sheikh Hasina, the involvement of a neighbouring country, India, could play a similar role, as billions of currencies are strategically distributed to secure support.
The Case of Bangladesh: A Twist in the Tale
However, the situation in Bangladesh may not follow the same script. The United States, a global superpower with significant influence in South Asian politics, might stand in the way of Sheikh Hasina’s potential return. If the U.S. decides to back the newly established regime, it could create significant resistance to any attempts by the fallen regime to reclaim power. The U.S. has historically played a pivotal role in shaping political outcomes in various countries, and its support could be crucial in preventing a return to autocracy in Bangladesh.
The Drama Unfolds
As Bangladesh navigates this critical juncture in its history, the world watches with bated breath. Will Sheikh Hasina manage to orchestrate a comeback, or will the newly established regime, possibly backed by international powers like the United States, resist and prevent her return? The drama that unfolds in the coming months and years will not only shape the future of Bangladesh but also serve as a lesson in the dynamics of power, corruption, and international influence. The “Return to Eden” remains a possibility, but the path to it is fraught with challenges and uncertainties, making the outcome far from predictable.